The authors use a reputable polling company Dynata.
The sample was obtained by Dynata, the world’s largest first-party data platform, and is representative for the US American population . The sampling using Dynata is based on opt-in sampling, respondents deliver high quality data, they are diverse and have community norms of honesty and accuracy . The survey was opened to the Dynata panel until the required number of responses was obtained from each category of the stratification variables age, sex, and income, as required for a balanced response set.
The article demonstrated the authors tried to do a good job and controlled for confounding variables. For example, do political views or vaccination status create a bias in reporting vaccine deaths? It turns out that, indeed, they do:
Estimated nationwide COVID-19 vaccine fatalities based on the Democrat, Republican and Independent subsets are 109,564, 463,444 and 247,867, respectively. With the vaccinated and unvaccinated subgroups, estimated COVID-19 vaccine fatalities are 110,942 and 659,995.
This discrepancy suggests that the estimates of the total number of vaccine fatalities cannot be very precise, and the authors point that out very honestly.
They attempted to control such confounders:
Adjustments were made for the following confounders: age, sex, political affiliation (Democrat, Republican, Independent), degree of urbanization using respondents’ self-assessment of whether they live in urban, suburban or rural areas, race (Caucasian, African American, Hispanic, Asian, Native American/Pacific Islander, Other), educational attainment as defined by the US Census , sources of information about COVID-19 (mainstream news, alternative news/other, peer-reviewed scientific literature, official government sources), COVID-19 illness problems in social circles, and COVID-19 inoculation problems in social circles.
The authors say: what is the chance that the CDC-reported number of vaccine deaths in VAERS (8,023 at the time the article was written) is the true number, and the much higher number of 278,000 is a product of an accidental statistical error?
They explain that the outcome is 28 standard deviations away, and therefore CDC’s VAERS number is understated. Thus, the CDC’s “null hypothesis” is rejected:
This hypothesis is tested using state-by-state VAERS data on reported COVID-19 vaccine-associated deaths and COVID-19 illness fatalities. The alternative hypothesis (Ha) is: X = CDC Ratio < Survey Ratio. The mean (u) and standard deviation (σ) of the ratio of vaccine fatalities to COVID-19 fatalities from the state-by-state data are u = 0.0136 and σ = 0.0111. The probability that the Survey Ratio > CDC Ratio = X is P(CDC Ratio > 0.345). With P(CDC Ratio > 0.345) = 0 and a Z-score = 28.86; the null hypothesis is rejected.
So, out of 243 million who received Covid vaccines by the end of Dec 2021, the study estimates that 278,000 died due to vaccines. This estimate suggests that one out of 874 persons is killed by Covid vaccines.
I know one such person, my friend’s nephew. He received a J&J vaccine around May 20, 2021, and died suddenly shortly thereafter. His death is NOT in VAERS.
Perfectly in Line with Late 2022 Rasmussen Survey
A recent Rasmussen survey shows that 28% of all adults know someone who died due to Covid vaccines.
Any other Estimates?
Steve Kirsch, at the approximate time the above-mentioned study was conducted, posted his own estimate of 388,000 Americans killed by Covid vaccines:
These are very similar estimates!
Fabian Spieker estimates that one out of 1,642 German vaccine dose recipients were killed:
Assume that by the end of 2021, 1.8 doses per vaccinated person were given. (some had only one dose) This would yield, in the USA, 243,000,000*1.8/1642 = 266,400 dead from Covid vaccines, if Americans die at the same rate as the Germans due to Covid vaccination.
Such an estimate is also not that far from the other two.
That these three outcomes of completely different calculations are not wildly different means that the true number of deaths (which nobody knows and nobody will ever know exactly) is somewhere in their vicinity.
This also means that my experience of knowing someone who died from Covid vaccine is not that unusual.
Summary of estimates:
- Skidmore: 278,000
- Kirsch: 388,000
- Fabian Spieker based on the number of american doses: 266,400
Whose estimate is more accurate? Skidmore’s, Kirsch’s, or Fabian Spieker’s?
What do you think?